Heavy rain from Friday – with most precipitation falling over the weekend

Severe flooding is possible on Saturday in many communities along rivers in southern Germany, hit by persistent rain. Although there was initially no widespread flooding overnight, there are fears in many places of a once-in-a-century flood. Large parts of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria in particular can expect a difficult weekend.

The region around Lake Constance is particularly in the spotlight: Due to the acute flood risk, around 1,300 people in Meckenbeuren in Baden-Württemberg were advised to leave their homes. As a precaution, other communities asked residents Friday evening to avoid basement rooms and sleep elsewhere for a few days if necessary.

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The safety measure in Meckenbeuren was not an evacuation, but a recommendation due to expected extreme flooding on the Schussen River, the community in Upper Swabia announced early on Saturday morning. There are currently no plans to evacuate. “We still hope that the weather situation will ease somewhat and that flood levels will be less dramatic than predicted,” Mayor Georg Schellinger said on Friday evening.

In Lindau on Lake Constance, the first streets and underpasses were flooded on Friday evening and city bus traffic had to be halted. The fire brigade and technical assistance were constantly in action. Residents had to be evacuated from an apartment complex because water could cause a short circuit.

Heavy thunderstorms forecast

Heavy thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected in parts of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia from Saturday afternoon. West Saxony, eastern Thuringia and the southeastern areas of Saxony-Anhalt are particularly affected, Marcel Schmid of the German Weather Service (DWD) said on Saturday. Locally, up to 60 liters of precipitation per square meter can fall within a few hours.

As so-called thunderstorm trails form that repeatedly pass over the same areas, even more rain can fall there. “There is a risk of local flooding, smaller rivers and streams may overflow their banks,” Schmid explains. “The ghost will be over around midnight.”

128 liters of rain per square meter within 24 hours

According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the highest warning level applies in many places in parts of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria on Saturday. The amount of precipitation during the night was largely in line with forecasts. In Sigmarszell, Swabia, Lindau district, approximately 128 liters of rain fell per square meter in one day.

In Ottobeuren in the Unterallgäu district and in Wangen im Allgäu (Ravensburg district) it was about 108 liters. About 105 liters fell in Kißlegg and about 104 liters fell in Weiler-Simmerberg in the Lindau district.

Disaster in Günzburg

The Zusam River in the Augsburg district has already burst its banks, flooding the streets of the market town of Fischach and inundating some cellars. However, there was no major damage or injuries, police said early Saturday morning. According to the Bavarian flood intelligence service, the Zusam reached reporting level three out of four on the Fleinhausen gauge overnight.

Not far away, the Günzburg district declared a disaster on Friday evening – as a preventive measure. The district office said the goal in the region is to better support potentially affected cities and communities. This requires emergency services from the entire district.

Focus area in the east of Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria

According to that Weather office-Meteorologist Jürgen Schmidt says that the soil can currently absorb little water anyway: “It rained a lot in May. The soils are saturated,” he told the editorial network Germany (RND) on Friday.

Schmidt assumed on Friday that the focus areas would be the Swabian Alb and eastern Baden-Württemberg, as well as the regions of Central and Upper Franconia, Allgäu and Swabia in Bavaria. “The highest rainfall totals are expected there until Saturday evening.” The DWD has issued warnings especially for Swabia and Upper Bavaria. “Extremely heavy, persistent rain” of level 4 (out of 4) is expected. There is a “great danger to life and limb” due to massive flooding and high water levels, areas that are impassable or surrounded by bodies of water. According to the DWD, heavy rain and thunderstorms are also expected in Franconia and large parts of the Upper Palatinate. Extreme storms with precipitation amounts of up to 150 liters per square meter in two days cannot be ruled out in these regions. The rain is not expected to gradually decrease in intensity until Sunday night. It will still rain most of the time on Sunday.

The highest alert level was also declared in parts of Baden-Württemberg. “A month of rain falls in two days,” a DWD meteorologist said Friday afternoon. “It is comparable to the amount of rain that recently fell in Saarland.” It is not yet possible to say what effect this amount of rain will have. For example, it depends on what rivers can handle, whether there are alternative pastures and what flood measures are taken.

According to the meteorologist, the regions of Upper Swabia and Ostalb are the worst affected. In Ravensburg, precipitation amounts between 60 and 100 liters per square meter are expected. In southern Upper Swabia and on the Ostalb, extreme precipitation amounts of up to 150 liters per square meter can be reached.

The reason for the extreme precipitation is the so-called Vb weather situation (pronounced: “five-B weather situation”), meteorologist Schmidt explains. A low-pressure area from the Adriatic Sea is moving over the Alps towards the northeast. These lows absorb large amounts of moisture via the Mediterranean Sea, which can then rain over Germany. According to the expert, congestion effects from the Alps also increase precipitation.

Rain and thunderstorms are also forecast in the east

The residents of Saxony-Anhalt should also prepare for lots of rain and thunderstorms this weekend. There will be a warning for heavy thunderstorms for Saturday from the second half of the day, said Robert Scholz of the DWD. Some areas in southern Saxony-Anhalt and eastern Thuringia up to the Leipzig region are particularly affected. Continuous rain is expected late Friday evening, especially in the south of the country.

The Thuringian authorities are keeping a close eye on Erfurt – where Catholic Day is held until Sunday. According to Interior Minister Georg Maier (SPD), the security authorities assessed the safety and weather situation together with the organizer. The tents for the gathering of believers were prepared for the strength of the wind and the amount of precipitation. “Troops have been sensitized to an operational situation and some have been called up.” However, the storm is expected to hit Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt less severely than initially feared.

As much rain in the weekend as usual in all of June

As examples of the amounts of rain that have already fallen in May and will continue to fall this weekend (Saturday is June 1), Schmidt looked at the 30-year averages for Nuremberg, Munich and Augsburg. In Nuremberg the average amount of rain in May is 61 liters per square meter, in Augsburg 85 liters. About 100 liters had already been consumed in both cities on Friday. In Munich, the average for May (107 litres) is exceeded even more significantly by around 150 litres.

Looking at the upcoming weekend rain showers, the extent of the current weather situation becomes clear: in June there will be an average of 64 liters of rain per square meter in Nuremberg, 91 in Augsburg and 121 liters of rain per square meter in Munich. “This means that in the next 24 to 48 hours there will be as much precipitation as usual in a month,” Schmidt emphasizes.

DWD and fire brigade warn about the size of the storm

The experts say: if it rains that much, flooding is likely. According to the DWD, there may be a danger to life and limb if streets, underpasses and buildings near water are flooded. Landslides are also possible.

The fire brigade has also warned of possible dangers. “Flooded streets and paths pose risks – regardless of whether you travel by car, on foot or on a two-wheeler,” said the vice-president of the German Fire Brigade Association, Hermann Schreck. “Fire departments are repeatedly warned of underpasses where vehicles are stuck.” The water is often higher than expected.

The persistent rain situation will calm down again on Sunday and the precipitation will shift towards the southeast. Rainfall south of the Danube is expected to decrease by Sunday evening at the latest. In Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland, where major flooding has occurred recently, large amounts of rain are not expected. Schmidt predicts a significant improvement in the weather for the coming week. By the weekend, temperatures in the south could even rise to 30 degrees.

With broker material