La Nina weather 60% likely to develop from June-August, says US forecaster

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Written By Pinang Driod

(Reuters) – A U.S. government weather forecaster expects an about 60% chance of the La Nina weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean emerging in the second half of 2024.

There is an 85% chance that a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely to occur by April-June, National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in a monthly forecast on Thursday.

“The end of El Nino would take away the vertical wind shear that tends to reduce the number of storms in the Atlantic basin. Further, warm ocean temperatures should facilitate the formation of stronger storms,” Citi Research said in a note.

India is expected to see a normal monsoon in 2024, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said, promising some respite after a prediction of more-than-normal heat wave days in the summer preceding the June-September rainy season.

“We are anticipating seasonal to slightly above normal rains for the Midwest, Delta, and central and northern Plains in the U.S., which should result in higher corn and soybean production,” said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar.

Southern Africa is reeling from its worst drought in years, owing to a combination of naturally occurring El Nino – when an abnormal warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific radiates heat into the air leading to hotter weather across the world – and higher average temperatures produced by greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, Japan’s weather bureau said on Monday there was an 8% chance of the El Nino phenomenon ending during the northern hemisphere spring.

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