Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck, emphasizes the sensitivity of the markets to the events surrounding the US presidential election in November. Key economic data will be available again next week, including some early indicators.
The coming week will see several leading indicators on the data agenda: “The German economy is likely to continue its moderate recovery,” says Robert Greil. The chief strategist at Merck Finck does not expect any major jumps in the Ifo business climate (Thursday) or in the purchasing managers’ indices or for the eurozone as a whole (Wednesday). “What is important now is that, in addition to companies, consumers are also becoming more optimistic,” Greil continues. Both the German GfK consumer climate (for August) and the July consumer confidence for the eurozone will be published on Tuesday.”
A look ahead to the November presidential election
Greil still expects more volatility in the equity markets: “This week provided a taste of how sensitive the equity markets are to US politics in the run-up to the presidential election in November – we expect significantly more price swings in the coming months than in the first half of the year.”
US Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter
In the eurozone, new money supply data for June will also be published on Wednesday. In the US (and also Japan), preliminary June purchasing managers’ indexes are also due on Wednesday, one day after new property market data. Second-quarter US gross domestic product orders and June durable goods orders will follow on Thursday, before new June core inflation data on Friday will provide further clues to the Fed’s likely first rate cut in September. Chinese industrial profits for June will close out the data week on Saturday.