UPS price target cut by TD Cowen on aggressive revenue guide

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Written By Pinang Driod

On Thursday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on UPS (NYSE:UPS), reducing the price target to $140 from $147 while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. The revision followed the company’s investor day held earlier this week at the UPS Worldport facility in Louisville, KY, where management presented their financial goals extending to 2026.

During the investor day, UPS outlined its revenue and profit targets for the upcoming years. Despite the ambitious revenue projections set forth by the company, TD Cowen expressed concerns regarding the achievability of these goals. The firm noted that the revenue targets are viewed as particularly aggressive, casting doubt on the company’s ability to meet these objectives.

The analysis by TD Cowen also highlighted a sense of disappointment stemming from the realization that UPS does not anticipate these profit and loss targets to significantly boost their free cash flow. This aspect of the financial plan seems to have contributed to the analyst’s decision to lower the price target for UPS shares.

Furthermore, the report from TD Cowen pointed out that overcapacity in the market is a prevailing worry among investors. This issue has been identified as a potential obstacle for UPS as it moves forward with its strategic plans.

Concluding the assessment, TD Cowen described the current situation surrounding UPS as a “show me” story, indicating a cautious stance and a need for the company to demonstrate its capability to fulfill the outlined financial targets before a more optimistic rating can be justified.

InvestingPro Insights

In light of TD Cowen’s recent price target adjustment for UPS, data and insights from InvestingPro provide an additional perspective on the company’s financial health and market position. UPS has a notable track record of raising its dividend, having done so for 14 consecutive years, signaling a commitment to returning value to shareholders. This is further underscored by the company maintaining dividend payments for 26 consecutive years, which is a testament to its financial stability.

InvestingPro Data reveals a current market capitalization of $125.69B and a P/E ratio standing at 19.06, which adjusts to 16.61 when looking at the last twelve months as of Q4 2023. Despite a revenue decline of -9.35% during the same period, UPS remains a prominent player in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. Moreover, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, which is supported by a solid gross profit margin of 22.96% and an operating income margin of 10.76%.

For investors looking for more in-depth analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available that could shed light on UPS’s financial nuances, such as its moderate level of debt and trading at a high Price/Book multiple of 7.26. To explore these insights further and access a comprehensive list of tips, visit InvestingPro. Remember to use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, and discover even more valuable tips—there are 4 more listed on InvestingPro for UPS alone.

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