Is a new Corona wave coming?

In the middle of summer, acute respiratory diseases are spreading in Germany. This is unusual because infections are usually less common when the outside temperature rises. But this year is different: at the beginning of July, more people are sick at this time of year than ever before. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently has around 5.1 million people with an acute respiratory disease weekly report included.

Virologist Martin Sturmer sees two reasons for this increase. On the one hand, the European Football Championship: such large events bring together countless people, including those from outside Germany, who would maintain much more intensive and intimate interpersonal contact, he said. “ZDFhüute”. On the other hand, the rainy, cool summer weather. “This promotes the spread of pathogens.”

These circumstances also benefit the coronavirus. In recent weeks, more and more people have been infected with Sars-CoV-2. Both the number of corona-related doctor visits and the number of new hospital admissions are increasing Infection radar of the Federal Ministry of Health. A higher viral load can also be detected in wastewater, which provides information about the nationwide infection process.

New “FLiRT variant” dominates the infection process

Is there a possible Corona summer wave in the offing? Virologist Christian Drosten had… RND interview recently predicted just such a development. “There is the variant KP.3, which is circulating in many countries – including Germany,” he gave as justification.

KP.3 is one of the so-called “FLiRT variants”. These variants – which can be recognized by the fact that they all start with KP or JN – are descendants of the omicron subline JN.1. They have undergone convergent evolution, i.e. they have acquired the same mutations independently of each other. Two of these mutations eliminate binding sites for antibodies that neutralize the coronavirus. Another allows the virus to bind more firmly to body cells.

This is how KP.3 managed to spread quickly in Germany. The RKI recently estimated their share of positive corona samples at 51 percent. This makes KP.3 currently the dominant Corona variant.

Only mild illnesses

KP.3, however, poses no particular threat. “We continue to see fairly mild disease progression,” says Andy Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the University of California. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Healthearly May, when the variant became dominant in the United States. The variant is probably not milder, but immunity is simply better.

Millions of people worldwide have now been vaccinated against Covid-19. In addition, almost everyone has been infected with the coronavirus at some point. Regardless of whether it is a vaccination or an infection, both create immunity against the pathogen. According to Pekosz, anyone who was last infected with the omicron subline JN.1 probably has “fairly strong protection against all FLiRT variants”.

New modified vaccine needed in the fall

And the vaccines remain effective against the coronavirus. Recently, vaccines adapted to the Omicron variant XBB.1.5 were used in Germany. “Against JN.1, the XBB.1.5-based vaccine produces some cross-reactive antibodies,” Pekosz said. So antibodies that bind not only to XBB.1.5, but also to JN.1. “There have been no studies yet with some of these newer variants, but they are probably a little less cross-reactive.”

It is also clear that the protection against vaccination decreases over time. That is why virologist Drosten advises: “Elderly people and people at risk should protect themselves again next autumn with the now newly adapted vaccine. This is a vaccine adapted to JN.1.” The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency has already given the green light for this Biontech and Pfizer developed the JN.1 vaccine. Approval by the European Commission is still pending.

When in doubt: test

In addition to vaccines, COVID tests remain an effective tool. “Home tests are still a very important tool to find out if you can infect other people,” says Pekosz. “It’s always a good idea to have a few COVID tests at home, in case you feel sick.”

KP.3 did not change the duration of contagiousness. “You are contagious one to two days before symptoms appear and a few days after symptoms disappear,” the immunologist explained. If you have been in contact with the coronavirus, symptoms usually appear within five or more days. Sometimes they can appear earlier.

How to protect yourself from corona infections

Anyone who experiences symptoms such as fever, runny nose, coughing and sore throat should stay home if possible. A corona test can provide clarity on whether or not there is actually a Sars-CoV-2 infection. In the event of a corona infection, it is important to keep a distance from people at risk, such as the elderly or people with a weakened immune system, in order not to infect them.

To prevent yourself from becoming infected with the pathogen in the first place, the RKI recommends practicing good hygiene. For example, wash your hands regularly and only sneeze and cough in the crook of your arm. Regular ventilation can also prevent infections. As can wearing a mask. According to the RKI, mouth and nose protection can be useful, especially if many people come together indoors.

Summer waves turn into winter waves

It is now impossible for the coronavirus to ever disappear. On the contrary: it will continue to circulate and change as it does so. KP.3 is most likely not the last new Corona variant.

The Corona summer waves will probably stop at some point. “It is possible that we will see more and more incidents even outside the cold season in the coming years,” Drosten predicted. “At some point there will only be winter waves that are comparable to seasonal flu.”