Manchester City vs Everton Prediction | Opta Analyst

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Written By Maya Cantina

Matchday 24 in the Premier League begins at the Etihad Stadium, where the champions are looking to go top of the pile. We look ahead to the game with our Manchester City vs Everton prediction and preview.


Manchester City vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits

  • Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Manchester City beat Everton in 74.3% of scenarios, with the Toffees only triumphing in 8.2%.
  • Man City haven’t lost any of their last 23 Premier League games against teams in the relegation zone, winning 21 and drawing two since a 3-2 loss at Norwich City in 2019.
  • Phil Foden has been involved in eight goals in his last six Premier League matches, scoring four and assisting four. He’s also scored four times against Everton in the competition, only netting more against Brighton and Hove Albion (six) and Brentford (five).

Match Preview

While Arsenal emerged as one of the major winners from Matchday 23, beating Liverpool to breathe new life into their Premier League title hopes, the same could be said of Manchester City. The champions’ 3-1 win over Brentford took them within two points of the league-leading Reds with a game in hand, and Saturday’s early kick-off against Everton offers them the chance to return to the summit for the first time since November, at least for a couple of hours.

Pep Guardiola’s side took full advantage of Liverpool’s first league defeat since September, recovering from a goal down to leave west London with three points on Monday. That victory saw the Opta supercomputer calculate City’s title hopes at 66.2% – their highest projected chance in roughly two months.

Monday’s game provided the latest example of City refusing to know when they’re beaten, with only Liverpool (19) gaining more points from losing positions in the Premier League than their 17 this season. City have only bettered that tally in one previous campaign, recovering 20 points in 1993-94.

Neal Maupay put Brentford ahead against the run of play midway through the first half, but Phil Foden punished Ethan Pinnock’s error to equalise on the stroke of half-time before completing his second Premier League hat-trick after the break.

That made him the fifth player to score multiple trebles in the competition for City, after Sergio Agüero (12), Raheem Sterling, Erling Haaland (both five) and Carlos Tevez (four).

Foden has been in inspired form since moving into a central position, recording eight goal involvements in his last six Premier League games (four goals, four assists). The omens are good for the England man ahead of Saturday’s game, too; he has scored four Premier League goals against Everton, only netting more against Brighton and Hove Albion (six) and Brentford (five).

His second goal on Monday – a well-taken glancing header – was assisted by midfield partner Kevin De Bruyne, who has wasted no time in getting back up to speed after his five-month injury lay-off. The Belgian has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 league games (four goals, seven assists) in a run stretching back to last April, while Monday’s assist was his 150th for City in all competitions.

City appear to be clicking into gear even earlier than usual this season, and worryingly for their rivals, Guardiola has a fully fit squad to choose from. John Stones returned from injury against Burnley on MD 22, while fellow defender Manuel Akanji was an unused substitute at Brentford.

Everton produced their own fightback last time out, recovering from 1-0 and 2-1 down in an entertaining 2-2 draw at home to Tottenham, with Jarrad Branthwaite’s 94th-minute header clinching a deserved point for the Toffees.

While that result could prove pivotal in Everton’s battle to avoid relegation, they are now winless in six Premier League matches, drawing three in a row after losing their previous three. They last drew four successive league games between August and September 2022 under Frank Lampard.

With Luton Town showing a remarkable improvement in recent weeks, the Everton’s fate could yet hinge on the outcome of their appeal against the 10-point deduction they received for breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules.

Jack Harrison – who was contracted to City between 2018 and 2021 without making an appearance – was also on target against Spurs, and he could have a key role to play if Everton are to survive. Harrison scored in December’s reverse fixture against City as Sean Dyche’s men were beaten 3-1 at Goodison Park, and he could become the first Everton player to net home and away against them in a single Premier League season since Romelu Lukaku in 2016-17.

Both of Everton’s goals against Spurs came from set-pieces, and if they are to have any chance of upsetting the treble winners, they’ll likely need to make the most of those chances again. Dyche’s team have scored 50% of their Premier League goals (13/26) from dead-ball scenarios this season, the highest proportion of any team in the division (excluding penalties). They’ve also recorded 110 shots from set-piece situations this campaign, a tally only bettered by Liverpool (111).

Everton’s midfield has been ravaged by selection issues in recent weeks, but Idrissa Gueye impressed on his return from international duty against Tottenham, while Dyche will hope Amadou Onana and Abdoulaye Doucouré can travel to the Etihad Stadium after recovering from their respective injuries.

Manchester City vs Everton Head-to-Head

City are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games against Everton, winning 11 and drawing two since suffering a 4-0 loss at Goodison Park in January 2017, during Guardiola’s first season at the helm.

The champions fell behind in the reverse fixture in late December, but Foden equalised before a debateable Julián Álvarez penalty put them ahead. Bernardo Silva then completed the scoring by lobbing Jordan Pickford four minutes from time.

Everton v Man City stats

Everton are also winless in their last 12 Premier League visits to the Etihad Stadium (five draws, seven defeats), having previously won on four straight trips there between 2008 and 2010.

The Toffees enter MD 24 18th in the Premier League and City are unbeaten in their last 23 league games against teams inside the relegation zone, winning 21 and drawing two such matches since a 3-2 defeat at Norwich City in September 2019.

City’s last such defeat this far into a season came in March 2015, against a Burnley side managed by Dyche. Can he mastermind another upset on Saturday?

Recent Form

City have made the Etihad a fortress recently, only losing one of their last 35 home Premier League matches (29 wins, five draws).

That defeat came against Brentford (2-1) in November 2022, and City are unbeaten in 21 home league matches since then (17 wins, four draws).

Furthermore, City’s last four league defeats at the Etihad have come against London clubs – the last team from outside the capital to beat them on their own turf was Leeds United in April 2021.

Everton, however, have been good travellers this term. Ignoring their 10-point deduction, only five Premier League teams have bettered their total of 17 points won on the road in 2023-24 (five wins, two draws, four defeats).

However, they are winless in four away games across all competitions (two draws, two defeats), after winning four in a row on their travels between late October and mid-December.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Manchester City vs Everton Prediction

Manchester City vs Everton Prediction

City seem to be hitting their stride at the perfect time, and the Opta supercomputer does not foresee an end to their ominous run on Saturday.

Guardiola’s men are chasing a 10th straight win across all competitions, and they emerge victorious in 74.3% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. That is the largest win probability assigned to any Premier League team on MD 24.

Everton are given just an 8.2% chance of a surprise win, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 17.5%.

In the latest update to the supercomputer’s season predictions, Everton’s chances of relegation crept up from 21.5% to 22%.

Sheffield United (99.6%) and Burnley (96.4%) are seen as near-certainties to return to the Championship, while Luton (32.6%) and Nottingham Forest (30.6%) are also viewed as more likely to suffer the drop than Everton.


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