The transatlantic military alliance is going through a difficult phase on its anniversary. Much depends on Germany – and on the outcome of the US elections.
A Bundeswehr fighter jet during a NATO air force exercise in June Photo: Björn Trotsky/imago
It should have been the biggest party ever in Washington. NATO is celebrating itself, its strength and solidarity with Ukraine, as a bulwark against aggressors and dictators of all kinds. After all, as NATO says, there has been peace between its member states for 75 years. French President Emmanuel Macron’s provocative remark in 2019, in which he gave the military alliance the status of “brain dead,” has been swept off the table.
Cynical but true: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can safely be described as a catalyst for the military alliance. The record levels of defense spending by the allies, reported by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg a few weeks ago, showed this. Willingness of members to invest in the country’s own armaments.
It was US President Joe Biden who pulled the strings at the start of the 2022 war in Ukraine – and quickly pledged his almost unconditional support for NATO. Now, some two and a half years have passed and solidarity seems to be crumbling. France is no longer a guarantor of stability after the ad hoc parliamentary elections. Right-wing populist governments no longer make a secret of their proximity to Putin. But the biggest source of uncertainty is the US itself.
If in November Donald Trump If the US president is re-elected, the military alliance could change significantly. Trump has repeatedly complained that the aid clause of Article 5 does not apply to him unconditionally. European states should please make more efforts when it comes to defense spending. Otherwise, the US would not come to the aid of the attacked states.
The concern that things will not stop messing up is real. The world is looking to Washington and the weakening of US President Joe Biden. After failed public performances, doubts about his resilience are growing. And that is what the president of a war power needs, willing to take a decisive stand against dictators like Putin. If the US, as an anchor of stability, is removed from a Trump administration, will the alliance be prepared?
There is much hope for Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s expectations are extremely high when he arrives in Washington today. After all, Germany is one of the largest arms donors to Ukraine after the US. And NATO expects that arms deliveries and training for the Ukrainian armed forces will be coordinated in Wiesbaden, Hesse, in the future.
The federal government has currently achieved the NATO target of two percent for defense spending as a percentage of gross domestic product. But it is questionable whether this will continue reliably in the coming years. Costs for upgrading. This really puts a damper on the party before it has even started.