Disney had to double down on streaming during the pandemic, which arrived in early 2020 just as “The Rise of Skywalker” was finishing its $1 billion theatrical run. Disney+ had launched only months earlier and both Marvel and “Star Wars” were going to be major anchors for the service. “The Mandalorian” proved to be almost universally appealing to viewers, which was in stark contrast to the divisive nature of the sequel trilogy. That was undoubtedly a good thing that the franchise needed, but it may have created another problem that the studio now has to contend with.
As we’ve seen with Pixar and the Marvel Cinematic Universe, having a ton of TV shows and movies available for free on a streaming service doesn’t help a brand’s box office potential. Disney CEO Bob Iger even said as much last year, acknowledging that releasing so much on Disney+ had an impact on audiences. This is something Iger is seeking to correct, but changing audience habits is easier said than done. Pandora’s Box is difficult to close. Once viewers know they can get something at home for “free,” it is tough to get them to pay for that thing in theaters again.
This is to say, “Star Wars” may now be facing the same issue that Pixar and the MCU are contending with. Yes, “The Mandalorian” and its characters are very popular, but they’ve been popular on TV from the comfort of home as part of a Disney+ subscription. Is that popularity going to translate to theatrical viability? Or is this going to be another “Solo: A Star Wars Story” ($393 million worldwide/$275 million budget) situation where Lucasfilm overestimates the demand for something? Han Solo is popular, but audiences didn’t necessarily need an origin story. Granted, it’s not an apples-to-apples thing, but the larger point remains.