Election polls: AfD lags behind the SPD in election surveys

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Written By Maya Cantina

The AfD Approval continues to decline, according to a new election survey. If there were federal elections on Sunday, the party would be on behalf of the government, according to the Insa Institute’s research Image-newspaper received 15.5 percent of the votes. That is 0.5 points less than in the previous survey and also represents the worst AfD value in an Insa survey since March 2023.

The SPD According to the survey, the vote share remained unchanged at 16 percent and would have overtaken the AfD for second place. The strongest force remains the CDU and CSU with 30.5 percent, the Greens reach 12 percent, the FDP has 5 percent. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) would enter the Bundestag with an approval rating of 7.5 percent, in contrast to the left, which achieved only 3.5 percent. More than 2,000 eligible voters were interviewed for the survey between May 31 and June 3.

Election polls are always just a snapshot in time and tend to fluctuate back and forth purely randomly. We therefore collect all available surveys and calculate a weighted average every day: the ZEIT-ONLINE election trend. This approach offers two advantages: By combining all available studies, a broad picture of mood is created that is less sensitive to measurement errors. Moreover, the election trend allows for analysis over time. This way you can see whether anything is moving politically.

For example, the AfD has lost significant support since mid-January, falling from 23 to 19 percent within three weeks, where it has remained ever since. A connection with the revelations about a meeting of right-wing extremists, including influential AfD politicians, and the subsequent large-scale demonstrations against the shift to the right is nearby. Losses of a few percentage points in a single survey don’t necessarily mean anything. But the election trend shows that all pollsters are noticing similar trends as the weeks go by.

On January 12, an institute demonstrated the newly established institution for the first time Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht in a survey, and since then the party has also appeared in the electoral trend. Actually, a splinter of the left fills the BSW a hole in the party system, which should also be interesting for some AfD voters. Wagenknecht could therefore also contribute to the losses of the right-wing extremists. However, according to the figures, the biggest beneficiary of the AfD’s decline currently appears to be the Chancellor’s party, the SPD.

The national election trend also serves as a mood barometer for the European elections on June 9, for which there are hardly any separate studies. Significantly fewer election surveys are published for the states than for the federal government. Therefore, the data base is not sufficient to display continuous curves. The closer a state election gets, the more often pollsters survey those eligible to vote. Since there are elections this year in Saxony, Thuringia (both on September 1) and Brandenburg (September 22), values ​​for the current vote can at least be calculated for these countries. All available studies are also included here.

The election trend does not take into account all available surveys equally, but rather weights them based on two criteria: on the one hand, newer surveys are given a higher weight than older ones. On the other hand, surveys from those institutions that have proven particularly reliable in the past – as measured by actual election results – have greater influence. To do this, we evaluated all federal and state elections since 2000, giving more weight to more recent elections and those at the federal level.

Election surveys can only approximately reflect the political mood of the population. Only a sample of usually one to two thousand people is interviewed. Because they are selected at random, results will vary. In addition, some groups of voters are easier to convince for surveys than others. Pollsters try to correct this distortion mathematically, but do not succeed perfectly. Immediately before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in June 2021 several surveys were published, which underestimated the CDU’s share by as much as ten percentage points, while the AfD was overestimated. Such extreme deviations are rare, but can occur.

The ZEIT ONLINE election trend is always only an approximation. On the day of Federal elections In 2021, he estimated the Greens, Left and AfD to be one percentage point too strong, while the Union parties were two points too weak.

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