Minister Habeck celebrated it as a great success in March: Germany is doing well when it comes to climate protection. Now an important committee is contradicting him.
Germany is missing its climate targets, including too many greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector Photo: Frank Sorge/imago
BERLIN dpa | In contrast to Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck, the federal government’s main committee of climate experts does not see Germany on the right track when it comes to climate protection. It is assumed that the 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target will not be met, the chairman of the Expert Council for Climate Issues, Hans-Martin Henning, said in a statement published in Berlin on Monday. In a Special report of approximately 130 pages the expert council checked the projections, i.e. preliminary calculations, of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA).
Habeck (Greens) stated in mid-March: “If we stay on track, we will achieve our 2030 climate goals.” The expert council sees it differently. According to the Climate Protection Act, German greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by at least 65 percent compared to 1990 by 2030. By 2040 this must be at least 88 percent and by 2050 Germany must be climate neutral, i.e. emit no more greenhouse gases than can be captured .
“All in all, we cannot confirm the cumulative target shown by the 2024 projection data for the years 2021 to 2030, but on the contrary assume that the target will not be achieved,” Henning explains.
Why the expert advice is pessimistic
According to UBA projections announced by Habeck in March, Germany would remain just within the legally permitted budget for greenhouse gas emissions. However, the expert council does not expect this to happen and gives two reasons for this.
First, the projection data lacked information on the likelihood that greenhouse gas emissions would actually develop as expected. Based on its own calculations, the expert council assumes that it cannot be assumed that the 2030 target will be achieved – even though emissions are expected to fall sharply. The precalculated Emissions in the field of energy, buildings and transport and with limitations in the industry were underestimated according to experts.
We would like to show you external content here. You decide whether you also want to see this element.
I agree to have external content shown to me. This means that personal data may be sent to third-party platforms. Read more about our privacy policy.
The expert council attributes this to the second reason: important developments that were not included in the Federal Environment Agency’s calculations. Habeck’s optimism was based on some outdated assumptions, as critics noted in March. Because only data up to and including October 2023 were included in the calculations.
But that was only then – under the cuts of the Karlsruhe budget decision Cuts were made to the important energy transition fund, the climate and transformation fund. The expert council points to these cuts, but also to changed market expectations with regard to gas prices and certificate prices in the European emissions trading. With emissions trading, companies can trade rights to emit greenhouse gases (certificates).
Experts are urging the government to take action
The scientists urge the federal government to take action — even if it does The new climate protection law was recently adopted by the Bundestag and the Bundesrat only provides for political adjustment if data show that the climate targets will not be achieved two years in a row. Moreover, according to the projection data, the even more ambitious climate targets are not expected to be achieved in the period 2031 to 204. The goal of greenhouse gas neutrality will not be achieved in 2045 or 2050.
The Expert Council is a committee of scientists. The members are appointed by the federal government for a period of five years and work independently. According to the Federal Climate Protection Act, its duties include the annual inspection of the preliminary data from the Federal Environment Agency on greenhouse gas emissions from the previous year. Every two years, the experts also present a report that focuses, among other things, on the effectiveness of climate protection measures to achieve Germany’s climate goals.